United Nations give warning of second wave of Pakistani flood deaths

Pakistan  The United Nations appealed on Wednesday for $459 million in aid for flood-hit Pakistan, warning of a second wave of death among sick, hungry survivors unless help arrived quickly.Roiling floods triggered by unusually heavy monsoon rain have scoured Pakistan’s Indus river basin, killing more than 1,600 people, forcing 2 million from their homes and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, or 8 percent of the population.President Asif Ali Zardari, whose government has come in for harsh criticism for its perceived sluggish response to the disaster, defended a decision to travel abroad as the floods began, saying he helped focus international attention on the plight of the victims.The floods, the worst in the region in 80 years, have raised fears for the prospects of the nuclear-armed U.S. ally already battling a deadly Islamist militancy.U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Wednesday the U.S. military was tripling the number of helicopters in Pakistan to 19 from six and sending in a landing platform to be used off the coast of Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city.

Washington, which had already committed $55 million to Pakistani flood relief efforts, also announced it was contributing a further $16.2 million to the U.N. refugee agency and International Red Cross for emergency assistance to flood victims.Aid agencies have complained of a lackluster donor response to the crisis, while a U.N. spokesman said help was needed soon.”If we do not respond soon enough to the urgent needs of the population, if we do not provide life-saving assistance as soon as is necessary, there may be a second wave of death caused by diseases and food shortages,” said U.N. humanitarian operations the spokesman Maurizio Giuliano.Hundreds of roads and bridges have been destroyed from northern mountains to the plains of the southern province of Sindh, where the waters have not yet crested, meaning the situation could get worse.

Countless villages and farms have been inundated, crops destroyed and livestock lost. In some places, families are huddled on tiny patches of water-logged land with their animals surrounded by an inland sea.On the outskirts of the city of Sukkur, in Sindh, hundreds of people waited for food supplies at a tent camp.”I can’t find my 12-year-old son. I’ve been to my village with soldiers on a boat but there was no sign of him,” said farmer Mohammad Hassan.”I’m so worried. I don’t know what to do. Should I take care of my family here or go and look for my son?” Hassan, a father of 10, told Reuters before rushing into a throng jostling around a truck that arrived with rations of cooked rice.

ECONOMIC DAMAGE

The International Monetary Fund has warned of major economic harm and the Finance Ministry said the country would miss this year’s 4.5 percent gross domestic product growth target, although it was not clear by how much.Pakistani stocks ended 0.17 percent down at 9,875.68 as the economic costs of the disaster rattled investors. the market has lost 5.37 percent since the floods began.The United Nations says the disaster is the biggest the country has faced and it would cost billions of dollars to rehabilitate the victims and rebuild ruined infrastructure.Giuliano said he was optimistic aid would arrive and $150 million had already been pledged. The U.N. World Food Program needs $150 million to feed 6 million people for three months.Zardari defended his decision to travel to France and Britain at the end of last month.

“Some have criticized my decision, saying it represented aloofness, but I felt that I had to choose substance over symbolism,” he said in an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal.The British government had pledged $24 million in aid, following his meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron, the Pakistani leader said.

Pakistan’s military, which has ruled the country for more than half of its 63-year history, has taken the lead in relief efforts, reinforcing the faith many Pakistanis have in their armed forces and highlighting the comparative ineffectiveness of civilian governments.Analysts say the armed forces would not try to take power as they have vowed to shun politics and are busy fighting militants.U.S. military helicopters have been airlifting survivors in an effort that may win Washington some supporters in Pakistan, where anti-American sentiment runs high.

“Let’s not talk about politics. We were trapped here and they came to evacuate us,” said Abdul Rehman, 37, rescued by a U.S. helicopter after being stranded with a new-born baby and wife.”They’re doing good. Let’s appreciate them.”The United States needs a stable Pakistan to help it end a nine-year war by the Taliban in Afghanistan.(Reuters)

Pakistani troops killed at least 34 militants after about 150 Taliban attacked a military checkpost in the northwest on Friday

Pakistani troops killed at least 34 militants after about 150 Taliban attacked a military checkpost in the northwest on Friday, challenging government assertions crackdowns have weakened the group.Homegrown Taliban rebels are seeking to topple the U.S.-backed government of unpopular President Asif Ali Zardari, who has been pressured to hand over some of his key powers, such as dissolving parliament and appointing military chiefs.

A senior military officer and four paramilitary soldiers were also killed in the attack in Orakzai, a day after Pakistani jets killed nearly 50 people, mostly militants, in strikes on a school and a seminary in the same region, a government official said.Fourteen soldiers were wounded in the Taliban assault.

Orakzai, one of seven Pakistani tribal regions near the Afghan border, also known as agencies, has seen a surge in military attacks in recent months, targeting militants who were driven out of their bastion of South Waziristan.Pakistan mounted two offensives last year in the northwestern Swat Valley and in South Waziristan on the Afghan border, which it says threw al Qaeda-linked militants into disarray.But despite losing ground, the Taliban hit back with bombings that killed hundreds, prompting troops to step up attacks in other northwestern regions where militants are believed to have taken refuge after offensives.In the latest attack, about 150 Taliban launched a pre-dawn assault on a checkpoint in Orakzai, triggering fierce fighting.

“They attacked from three sides which continued for nearly three hours in which a lieutenant colonel and four other security officials were killed,” said government official Khaista Rehman.”Security forces launched the counter-attack in which 24 militants have been killed,” he said. A paramilitary official, said as many as 30 militants may have been killed.

Army jets and helicopter gunships later targeted suspected militant hideouts in various parts of Orakzai and killed another 10 militants, said government official Mohammad Asghar Khan.Orakzai is considered a militant stronghold of Pakistan Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud, who is widely believed to have been killed in a U.S. drone aircraft attack in January.

Pakistani action against militants along its Afghan border is seen as crucial to the U.S. efforts to bring stability to Afghanistan, particularly as Washington sends more troops there to fight a raging Taliban insurgency before a gradual withdrawal starts in 2011.

The two allies pledged increased cooperation in tackling militants during two days of talks in Washington that ended on Thursday, with Washington promising to speed up overdue military payments.U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates praised Pakistan for increased coordination over stabilizing Afghanistan, including the recent arrest of a key Afghan Taliban commander in what has been described as a joint American-Pakistani raid in Karachi.(Reuters)

A former provincial minister and three other people have been killed in a bomb attack at north-western Pakistani town of Hangu

Asif Ali Zardari

A former provincial minister and three other people have been killed in a bomb attack near the north-western Pakistani town of Hangu, police said.Ghani ur-Rhaman, a former North-West Frontier Province education minister, died when a roadside bomb exploded next to the car in which he was travelling. His driver, bodyguard and a friend were also killed, officials said. The attack comes two days after 99 people were killed by an explosion at a volleyball tournament in Lakki Marwat.

The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, condemned the attack and said Washington would continue supporting Pakistan’s efforts to combat extremism and bolster democracy. For his part, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said such actions would not weaken his government’s resolve to fight terrorism. Lakki Marwat lies in an area regarded as a Taliban stronghold until recently, when the militants were driven out by the Pakistani army.

Afghanistan and Pakistan face decisive year at now

Fighting in Afghanistan is due to intensify as more US troops arrive

People in the South Asia region will be holding their breath in the new year. If both nations fail to achieve a modicum of political stability and success against extremism and economic growth, the world will be faced with an expansion of Islamic extremism, doubts about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and major questions about US prestige and power as it withdraws from Afghanistan. The challenges for both countries are deeply interlinked and enormous.The primary task is whether both countries can work together with the Western alliance to roll back the Taliban and al-Qaeda threat they face. That in turn rests on the success of the US and Nato’s new strategy in both countries over the next 18 months as President Barack Obama has pledged to stabilise Afghanistan’s political and economic institutions and start handing over Afghan security to the Afghan armed forces, starting in July 2011.

Karzai undermined

For that to happen much will depend on whether the West is able to find effective government partners in both Islamabad and Kabul.

So far the prospects are not all that hopeful.President Hamid Karzai has emerged as the victor after intensely controversial elections that undermined his domestic and international credibility, while the Afghan army is still far from being able to take over major security responsibilities.

There will be renewed political wrangling as the West and the Afghans have to decide whether to hold parliamentary elections in the new year. The Afghan army is still undermanned, undertrained and has yet to be equipped with heavy weapons and an air force.

The Afghan army also suffers from 80% illiteracy and a lack of recruits from the Pashtun belt, which are essential if the army is to be effective in the Taliban-controlled southern and eastern parts of the country.

In the midst of what will certainly be a hot and possibly decisive summer of fighting in 2010 between Western forces and the Taliban, the other primary tasks of providing jobs and economic development, while building sustainable capacity within the Afghan government to serve the Afghan people, will be even more important and difficult to achieve. The Taliban strategic plan for the summer is likely to be to avoid excessive fighting in the south and east which is being reinforced with 30,000 new American soldiers.

Instead, the Taliban will try to expand Taliban bases in the north and west of the country, where they can demoralise the forces of European Nato countries that are facing growing opposition at home about their deployment. The militants will also stretch the incoming US troops – forcing them to douse Taliban fires across the country – while they try to create greater insecurity in Central Asia.

Pakistan crisis

At the same time the Pakistan military, which now effectively controls policy towards India and Afghanistan, shows no signs of giving up on the sanctuaries that the Afghan Taliban have acquired in Pakistan.Without Pakistan eliminating these sanctuaries or forcing the Afghan Taliban leadership into talks with Kabul, US success in Afghanistan is unlikely.

Pakistan itself faces a triple crisis
acute political instability – President Asif Ali Zardari may soon be forced to resign, which could trigger long-term political unrest
an ever-worsening economic crisis that is creating vast armies of jobless youth who are being attracted to the message of extremism
the army’s success rate in dealing with its own indigenous Taliban problem.

The key to any improvement rests on the army and the political forces coming to a mutual understanding and working relationship with each other and providing support to Western efforts in Afghanistan. However, for the moment that appears unlikely while the army is hedging its bets with the Afghan Taliban, as it is fearful about a potential power vacuum in Afghanistan once the Americans start to leave in 2011.

Other neighbouring countries – India, Iran, Russia and the Central Asian republics – may start thinking along the same lines and prepare their own Afghan proxies to oppose the Afghan Taliban, which could result in a return to a brutal civil war similar to that of the 1990s. Pakistan’s fight against its own Taliban is going well but that is insufficient as long as the army does not move militarily or politically against the Afghan Taliban or other Punjab-based extremist groups now allied with the Taliban.

Impasse

Pakistani calculations also involve India – and the failure of both nations to resume the dialogue halted after the 2008 attacks in Mumbai (Bombay).

India fears that extremist Punjabi groups could launch another Mumbai-style attack and are demanding that Pakistan break up all indigenous extremist groups that fought in Indian-administered Kashmir in the 1990s.

Islamabad is refusing to do so until Delhi resumes talks with it. The Obama administration has so far failed to persuade India and Pakistan to resume a dialogue or settle their differences and if that remains the case in the new year, Pakistan is more than likely to continue defying US pressure to help with Afghanistan.

There is growing anti-Americanism in Pakistan despite Washington’s pledge of an annual $1.5bn aid package for the next five years. With the present lack of security in Pakistan – and the volatile mood towards the US and India that is partly being fuelled by the military – it is difficult to see how US aid can be effectively spent or how other economic investments can take place.

At present there is an enormous flight of local capital from both Afghanistan and Pakistan that has increased since the Obama plan was announced.
The recent arrests in the US and Europe of suspects linked to the Afghanistan-Pakistan region indicate that the world could face a wider extremist threat if it fails to effectively stabilise Afghanistan and help Pakistan towards a quick economic and political recovery.

officials Intel : US missiles kill 17 in Pakistan

US missiles

MIR ALI, Pakistan  Two suspected U.S. missile strikes, one using multiple drones, killed 17 people in a Pakistani tribal region along the Afghan border Thursday, local intelligence officials said.The officials said the second, bloodier attack involved five drones and 10 missiles – an unusually intense bombardment.The missiles rained on North Waziristan, considered a safe haven for many militants including groups determined to push the U.S. and NATO out of Afghanistan. The strikes in North Waziristan are especially sensitive because they risk angering Afghan-focused militant groups who have agreed to be neutral as Islamabad cracks down on Taliban fighters who have threatened the Pakistani state.

Officials said in the first strike, two missiles hit a car carrying two suspected insurgents in Dosali village. Later Thursday, the 10 missiles fired by five drones killed 15 people in two compounds in the Ambarshaga area. At least seven of the dead were foreigners, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to media.

It was not immediately clear who or what was targeted in the strike.The U.S. has carried out more than 40 such missile strikes this year, killing scores of suspected al-Qaida and Taliban militants, but angering many Pakistanis who point to the resulting civilian casualties. Pakistan regularly condemns the attacks as violations of its sovereignty, but it is believed to secretly aid the U.S. campaign.

The U.S. rarely acknowledges the covert, CIA-run missile program. But when officials have confirmed the attacks, they say it is a crucial tool and note that the missiles have slain several top al-Qaida operatives as well as Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud.

The Pakistani intelligence officials on Thursday confirmed that the two strikes hit territory controlled by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, a warlord whose fighters focus on pushing out Western troops in Afghanistan. Bahadur has agreed to stay out of the way as the Pakistani army has waged an offensive in neighboring South Waziristan against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan – or Pakistani Taliban Movement.

The Pakistani Taliban have carried out scores of attacks against Pakistani security and government targets, spurring the army offensive. Even so, many of the group’s leaders are believed to have fled the army onslaught of recent weeks, finding refuge elsewhere in the tribal belt, including North Waziristan.

Analysts have warned that U.S. missile strikes could upset the deals with Bahadur, and lead him to aid the Pakistani Taliban against the military. Still, a number of missile strikes have been carried out in the region in recent weeks and there’s no evidence that has happened just yet. The U.S. also is unlikely to hold off if it has intelligence on the whereabouts of a high-value target.

The attacks came amid political turbulence in the country. Pakistan’s president faced fresh calls to step down after the Supreme Court struck down an amnesty that had protected the increasingly unpopular leader and several of his political allies from corruption charges.

While it is generally agreed that President Asif Ali Zardari has immunity from prosecution as president, the Wednesday court ruling means his opponents can now challenge his eligibility to hold the post. Zardari is already unpopular, in large part because of his close ties with Washington.

Zardari’s aides said any corruption charges against him were politically motivated and that there was no reason for him to step down. Critics countered he was morally obligated to resign, at least while the court heard any challenges to his rule.

“It will be in his own interest, it will be in the interest of his party and it will be good for the system,” said Khawaja Asif, a senior leader from the opposition Pakistan Muslim League party.

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Pakistan's Supreme Court began hearing a case Monday against

Asif Ali Zardari

ISLAMABAD Pakistan’s Supreme Court began hearing a case Monday against an amnesty that had protected President Asif Ali Zardari and many key allies from graft charges.The process could lead to challenges against the legality of the U.S.-allied president’s rule just as the Obama administration needs stability in Islamabad to help crack down on militants near the Afghan border.Court official Azhar Hussain said the 17-member bench led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry started hearing petitions but gave no other details.

The session came two weeks after the expiration of the amnesty, which had been granted in a U.S.-backed deal with ex-military leader Pervez Musharraf to allow Zardari’s late wife, former Prime Minister Bhutto, to return from exile in 2007 and run for office safe in the knowledge she would not be dogged by corruption allegations.Speculation over Zardari’s future has escalated after he was forced to abandon an effort to get Parliament to approve the amnesty, which granted him and more than 8,000 other government bureaucrats and politicians immunity from a host of corruption and criminal charges.

Zardari, who has denied any wrongdoing, enjoys general immunity from prosecution as president, but the Supreme Court could choose to challenge his eligibility for the post if the amnesty is declared illegal.

The U.S. and other Western nations supported the bid by Bhutto, who was seen as a secular and pro-Western politician. But Bhutto, who was forced from her post twice in the 1990s because of alleged misrule and corruption, was killed by a suicide bomber shortly after she returned to Pakistan. Zardari took over as co-chairman of her party and was elected president in September 2008 by federal and regional lawmakers.

The political upheaval comes as President Barack Obama’s administration is stepping up its effort to defeat the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan and on Pakistan’s northwestern border. To have much hope of success, the U.S needs a stable Pakistani government committed to fighting militants blamed for attacks in both countries.

President Asif Ali Zardari possibility of corruption charges

Asif Ali Zardari

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered a hearing on a petition against the amnesty granted two years ago that has protected the President Asif Ali Zardari and other senior officials of the possibility of corruption charges.

Former President Pervez Musharraf ordered the amnesty, in part to revoke a pending corruption charges against former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and allow him back into the country from exile. Commandment amnesty covers about 8000 people but it had expired last Saturday.

Federal court is scheduled to begin hearings on the petition was dated December 7.

Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan after the amnesty order to begin again his political career, but not long before he was murdered. Her husband, a businessman who once was imprisoned in the past on charges of corruption, then became president of Pakistan after General Musharraf to resign.