discovery of large natural gas could lead to new Lebanon-Israel war

BEIRUT The discovery of large natural gas reserves under the waters of the eastern Mediterranean could potentially mean a huge economic windfall for Israel and Lebanon, both resource-poor nations – if it doesn’t spark new war between them.The Hezbollah militant group has blared warnings that Israel plans to steal natural gas from Lebanese territory and vows to defend the resources with its arsenal of rockets. Israel says the fields it is developing do not extend into Lebanese waters, a claim experts say appears to be correct, but the maritime boundary between the two countries – still officially at war – has never been precisely set.

“Lebanon’s need for the resistance has doubled today in light of Israeli threats to steal Lebanon’s oil wealth,” Hezbollah’s Executive Council chief Hashem Safieddine said last month. The need to protect the offshore wealth “pushes us in the future to strengthen the resistance’s capabilities.”The threats cast a shadow over what could be a financial boon for both nations, with energy companies finding what appear to be substantial natural gas deposits in their waters.

Israel is far ahead in the race to develop the resources. Two fields, Tamar and Dalit, discovered last year, are due to start producing in 2012, and experts say their estimated combined reserves of 5.5 trillion cubic feet (160 billion cubic meters) of natural gas can cover Israel’s energy needs for the next two decades.In June, the U.S. energy company Noble Energy, part of a consortium developing the fields, predicted that Israel will also have enough gas to export to Europe and Asia from a third field – Leviathan, thought to hold up to 16 trillion cubic feet (450 billion cubic meters) of gas.

Israel relies entirely on imports to meet its energy needs, spending billions to bring natural gas from Egypt and coal from a variety of countries. So just freeing the country from that reliance would have a major impact.When Tamar begins producing it could lower Israel’s energy costs by a $1 billion a year and bring $400 million a year in royalties into government coffers. That suggests a total of about $40 billion in savings and $16 billion in government revenues over the total yield of the field. Those numbers would only rise as Leviathan comes on line.

“Israel’s always looked for oil,” said Paul Rivlin, a senior research fellow with Tel Aviv University’s Dayan center. “But I don’t think it ever thought of itself as becoming a producer. And now that you’ve got a high-tech economy that’s doing quite well, this comes as an added bonus.”

Hezbollah’s warnings, however, quickly followed the announcement by Houston, Texas-based Noble Energy.Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, warned that Israel is “turning into an oil emirate while ignoring the fact that the field extends, according to the maps, into Lebanon’s territorial waters.”

Israel’s Petroleum and Mining commissioner at the National Infrastructure Ministry Yaakov Mimran, called those claims “nonsense,” saying Leviathan and the other two fields are all within Israel’s economic zone.”Those noises occur when they smell gas. Until then, they sit quietly and let the other side spend the money,” Mimran told the Israeli daily Haaretz.

Maps from Noble Energy show Leviathan within Israel’s waters. An official with Norway’s Petroleum Geo-Services, which is surveying gas fields in Lebanese waters, told The Associated Press that from Noble’s reports there is no reason to think Leviathan extends into Lebanon. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized by his company to speak on the subject.

The rumblings are worrisome because Israel and Hezbollah each accuse the other of intending to spark a new conflict following their devastating 2006 war. That fighting, in which Hezbollah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid sparked a massive Israeli bombardment, killed about 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis.

Since then, there has been a rare interval of peace. Hezbollah, a close ally of Syria and Iran, has not fired a rocket into Israel since. Israeli officials, however, say they believe Hezbollah has managed to triple its prewar arms stockpile to more than 40,000 rockets.The warnings from Hezbollah and Berri could be as much for domestic consumption as directed as Israel, aiming to press for the passage of a long-delayed draft oil law, needed before any Lebanese fields can be developed.

Oil and gas exploration has been a source of disagreement between Lebanese politicians over the past decade. The change of several governments and disputes over what company should do the surveying have caused delays.In October, Petroleum Geo-Services said fields in Cypriot and Lebanese waters “may prove to be an exciting new province for oil and gas in the next few years,” noting signs of deposits in Lebanon, though their size is still not known. “It is very encouraging for Lebanon,” the PGS official told AP.

Any finds could help Lebanon’s government pay off what is one of the highest debt rates in the world, at about $52 billion, or 147 percent of the gross domestic product.Israel and Lebanon are among the few countries in the Middle East without substantial, lucrative natural resources. Israel has built a place for itself with a powerful high-tech sector, while Lebanon has boomed in recent years with tourism and real estate investment. While the gas may not transform them into Gulf-style spigots of petro-cash, it would be a major boost.

Rivlin doubts Israel could become a significant exporter, saying nearby countries don’t need or aren’t willing to buy from it, and the costs of liquifying gas for transport to further markets like Europe may be prohibitive. But Eytan Gilboa, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University, said that with the world “so hungry for energy,” Israel won’t have a problem finding buyers.But the development raises security worries, as the offshore gas infrastructure could become a target. During the 2006 fighting, Hezbollah succeeded in hitting Israeli warships off Lebanon with its rockets.”Once those rigs start producing gas, it’s going to be difficult to secure them,” Gilboa said. “So on the one hand, you reduce dependency on imports in times of crisis, but at the same time, you make yourself vulnerable because those sites are exposed.” (AP)

"mentally disturbed" woman tried to attack Pope Benedict XVI

"mentally disturbed" woman tried to attack Pope Benedict XVI

The woman who dragged the Pope down Thursday night during Christmas Eve Mass at St. Peter’s Basilica is the same woman who tried to attack the Pope at the same function last year, the Vatican said.The woman, described by a Vatican spokesman as “mentally disturbed” jumped a barrier at the start of the event and toppled Pope Benedict XVI as onlookers gasped.Screams erupted from worshippers when the woman ran toward Pope Benedict XVI and grabbed onto his vestments as he walked down the main aisle of the Rome church, video footage showed.

He was quickly helped to his feet by his aides — prompting cheers from the crowd — and the service was resumed, Vatican spokesman Federico Lombardi told CNN.The Pope was not hurt in the incident, Lombardi said.

“Unfortunately that is not the same for Cardinal [Roger Etchegaray] who was nearby; he fell and broke his femur,” said Lomabardi.The woman was being detained, Lombardi said. Lombardi did not release the name of the woman but she had been named in Italian news outlets.He confirmed that the woman was same person who unsuccessfully tried to rush at the Pope at the event last year.

Lombardi defended the Vatican’s security saying authorities were sure that the woman did not have any weapons because she had gone through security screening.

John Allen, senior Vatican analyst for CNN, said such security breaches aren’t uncommon.”As compared to say, the president of the United States, the security membrane around the pope is pretty thin and fairly permeable,” he said, citing similar past incidents, including one that happened last Christmas Eve.

Allen said that generally, these disruptions are caused by people who aren’t seeking real harm, but who want to be close to the pope.Benedict began what has traditionally been a midnight Mass at the Vatican at 10 p.m. as officials sought to keep the 82-year-old pontiff from a late night.

Celebrants in Bethlehem, the traditional birthplace of Jesus in the West Bank, however, joined the Latin Patriarch Fouad Twal for a midnight Mass attended by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other Palestinian officials.

Outside the Church of the Nativity, erected over the site Christian tradition says was the place of Jesus’ birth, the faithful gathered under the watchful eyes of heavily armed Palestinian police.

But Palestinian shopkeeper Nadia Hazboun said the security situation in the West Bank has improved in the time since the militant Hamas group took over Gaza and Abbas’ Fatah movement abandoned the narrow strip of land between Israel and the Mediterranean for the West Bank.

“It was bad, now it is good,” he told Voice of America radio. “I told you, before anybody take the law in his [own] hands. But now the law [is] with the police. We have security, we have calm, we have now the best situation in Bethlehem.”Were you there? Share pictures, video

Christmas Eve in Bethlehem is a popular destination for American Christians, including Iowan Paul Edelman.”Just the festivities, the idea that this is the birthplace of Christ, and you get to see all the historic places and share it with people from around the world; it’s a very nice experience,” he told Voice of America radio.