Arizona’s draconian new immigration law has prompted calls from civil rights groups for a boycott of the state’s industries and sports teams . But don’t get too excited. It turns out that the new law is quite popular – and not just in Arizona. Two recent national polls – one by Gallup , the other by CBS – have found that a majority of Americans strongly approve of the state’s immigration crackdown.
In fact, some even some think it doesn’t go far enough. Have Americans become rightwing nuts? Hardly. But Washington’s endless dithering on immigration policy has the whole country at a boiling point. And if Arizonans want to vent their anger, well, bully for them, say voters – including a majority of independents, and even a solid third of Democrats . With the midterm elections just six months away, and Democratic fortunes fading fast, immigration is fast becoming an albatross for Obama.
Egged on by his disaffected Latino base, Obama decided to denounce the Arizona law. But voters obviously don’t agree with him. And Obama has also decided to urge Congress to begin work on comprehensive immigration reform, even though his key GOP ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, a moderate, isn’t playing ball. Graham warned Obama months ago that if he rammed healthcare reform through Congress, he could kiss immigration reform goodbye. Apparently, the president wasn’t listening. And neither was Senate majority leader Harry Reid, who is trailing both of his GOP opponents in the polls, and could well lose his seat this November.
Reid tried to rally Latino voters in Nevada last month by promising that Democrats would try to pass immigration reform this year, even if the GOP won’t help. Apparently, though, Reid forgot to consult with other Democrats. Because it turns out, post-Arizona, that there aren’t enough Democratic votes to pass immigration reform. In fact, Reid may not even be able to get the 50 votes necessary to bring a Democrat-only bill to the Senate floor – let alone secure its passage. What’s Obama to do? Right now, he’s caught between his angry and mobilised Latino base, which is demanding that he push forward with a plan to legalise undocumented immigrants, and mainstream voters, who seem to be leaning toward the GOP’s view that border and workplace enforcement should come first. It’s a recipe for disaster. Many Democrats – and not just Reid – need Latinos and other base groups to turn out in large numbers if they hope to prevail against Republicans this November – and preserve their party’s control of Congress. According to political experts, in some 35 congressional election contests in the West, a high Latino voter turn out could well provide the margin of difference. Also up for grabs, depending on Latino voting, are critical races in high-density Latino states like Florida.
There, a rising GOP star, Marco Rubio, who is Latino, is seeking to win a three-way Senate race in which former GOP Gov. Charlie Crist is running as an independent. On the other hand, there are just as many competitive districts in the South and Midwest where key swing voters overwhelmingly support the new Arizona crackdown, according to polls. Any move by Obama and the Democrats in the direction of legalization – even stepped criticism of Arizona’s new law, perhaps – could well doom Democratic fortunes there. For the GOP, meanwhile, it’s a question of how to balance the short-term political gain of holding out on immigration reform with the potential long-term damage to the party of appearing hostile to Latino aspirations. Everyone knows, Latinos especially, that the Arizona GOP was responsible for the Arizona law. And since many Republicans at the national level have refused to criticize the law, they are not winning any new friends among a key swing constituency they lost in 2008. But most Republicans are calculating that Latinos are just as concerned as mainstream voters about the deficit and the state of the economy – and won’t penalise the GOP for not focusing on immigration before November. And, in fact, like many Democrats, the GOP is also finding itself boxed in by its nativist wing. Just ask Senator John McCain, who has enthusiastically backed the state’s new immigration crackdown because of nativist pressure from GOP challenger, and Tea Party favorite, JD Hayworth. If he hadn’t, he wouldn’t stand a chance of getting re-elected, observers say. With only a narrow legislative window remaining – Congress takes a break on May 28, and when it returns, candidates start ginning up their election campaigns – serious action on immigration is unlikely. Reid, already under fire from the GOP for his grand-standing on immigration, has promised to focus on an energy, bill first and foremost.
Obama, meanwhile, recently took advantage of the annual White House “Cinco de Mayo” celebration to say that he still hoped that Congress would “start work” on immigration this year. In the game of verbal inches that often passes for Washington politics, that statement was taken as a positive sign. Of what, though, no one’s exactly sure.
Santosamaru 