discovery of large natural gas could lead to new Lebanon-Israel war

BEIRUT The discovery of large natural gas reserves under the waters of the eastern Mediterranean could potentially mean a huge economic windfall for Israel and Lebanon, both resource-poor nations – if it doesn’t spark new war between them.The Hezbollah militant group has blared warnings that Israel plans to steal natural gas from Lebanese territory and vows to defend the resources with its arsenal of rockets. Israel says the fields it is developing do not extend into Lebanese waters, a claim experts say appears to be correct, but the maritime boundary between the two countries – still officially at war – has never been precisely set.

“Lebanon’s need for the resistance has doubled today in light of Israeli threats to steal Lebanon’s oil wealth,” Hezbollah’s Executive Council chief Hashem Safieddine said last month. The need to protect the offshore wealth “pushes us in the future to strengthen the resistance’s capabilities.”The threats cast a shadow over what could be a financial boon for both nations, with energy companies finding what appear to be substantial natural gas deposits in their waters.

Israel is far ahead in the race to develop the resources. Two fields, Tamar and Dalit, discovered last year, are due to start producing in 2012, and experts say their estimated combined reserves of 5.5 trillion cubic feet (160 billion cubic meters) of natural gas can cover Israel’s energy needs for the next two decades.In June, the U.S. energy company Noble Energy, part of a consortium developing the fields, predicted that Israel will also have enough gas to export to Europe and Asia from a third field – Leviathan, thought to hold up to 16 trillion cubic feet (450 billion cubic meters) of gas.

Israel relies entirely on imports to meet its energy needs, spending billions to bring natural gas from Egypt and coal from a variety of countries. So just freeing the country from that reliance would have a major impact.When Tamar begins producing it could lower Israel’s energy costs by a $1 billion a year and bring $400 million a year in royalties into government coffers. That suggests a total of about $40 billion in savings and $16 billion in government revenues over the total yield of the field. Those numbers would only rise as Leviathan comes on line.

“Israel’s always looked for oil,” said Paul Rivlin, a senior research fellow with Tel Aviv University’s Dayan center. “But I don’t think it ever thought of itself as becoming a producer. And now that you’ve got a high-tech economy that’s doing quite well, this comes as an added bonus.”

Hezbollah’s warnings, however, quickly followed the announcement by Houston, Texas-based Noble Energy.Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, warned that Israel is “turning into an oil emirate while ignoring the fact that the field extends, according to the maps, into Lebanon’s territorial waters.”

Israel’s Petroleum and Mining commissioner at the National Infrastructure Ministry Yaakov Mimran, called those claims “nonsense,” saying Leviathan and the other two fields are all within Israel’s economic zone.”Those noises occur when they smell gas. Until then, they sit quietly and let the other side spend the money,” Mimran told the Israeli daily Haaretz.

Maps from Noble Energy show Leviathan within Israel’s waters. An official with Norway’s Petroleum Geo-Services, which is surveying gas fields in Lebanese waters, told The Associated Press that from Noble’s reports there is no reason to think Leviathan extends into Lebanon. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized by his company to speak on the subject.

The rumblings are worrisome because Israel and Hezbollah each accuse the other of intending to spark a new conflict following their devastating 2006 war. That fighting, in which Hezbollah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid sparked a massive Israeli bombardment, killed about 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis.

Since then, there has been a rare interval of peace. Hezbollah, a close ally of Syria and Iran, has not fired a rocket into Israel since. Israeli officials, however, say they believe Hezbollah has managed to triple its prewar arms stockpile to more than 40,000 rockets.The warnings from Hezbollah and Berri could be as much for domestic consumption as directed as Israel, aiming to press for the passage of a long-delayed draft oil law, needed before any Lebanese fields can be developed.

Oil and gas exploration has been a source of disagreement between Lebanese politicians over the past decade. The change of several governments and disputes over what company should do the surveying have caused delays.In October, Petroleum Geo-Services said fields in Cypriot and Lebanese waters “may prove to be an exciting new province for oil and gas in the next few years,” noting signs of deposits in Lebanon, though their size is still not known. “It is very encouraging for Lebanon,” the PGS official told AP.

Any finds could help Lebanon’s government pay off what is one of the highest debt rates in the world, at about $52 billion, or 147 percent of the gross domestic product.Israel and Lebanon are among the few countries in the Middle East without substantial, lucrative natural resources. Israel has built a place for itself with a powerful high-tech sector, while Lebanon has boomed in recent years with tourism and real estate investment. While the gas may not transform them into Gulf-style spigots of petro-cash, it would be a major boost.

Rivlin doubts Israel could become a significant exporter, saying nearby countries don’t need or aren’t willing to buy from it, and the costs of liquifying gas for transport to further markets like Europe may be prohibitive. But Eytan Gilboa, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University, said that with the world “so hungry for energy,” Israel won’t have a problem finding buyers.But the development raises security worries, as the offshore gas infrastructure could become a target. During the 2006 fighting, Hezbollah succeeded in hitting Israeli warships off Lebanon with its rockets.”Once those rigs start producing gas, it’s going to be difficult to secure them,” Gilboa said. “So on the one hand, you reduce dependency on imports in times of crisis, but at the same time, you make yourself vulnerable because those sites are exposed.” (AP)

Tokyo court convicts New Zealand anti-whaling activist

TOKYO A Tokyo court on Wednesday convicted a New Zealand activist of assault and obstructing Japanese whaling ships in the Antarctic Ocean, and sentenced him to a suspended prison term.Peter Bethune was also found guilty on three other charges: trespassing, vandalism and possession of a knife. He had pleaded guilty to all but the assault charge when his trial started in late May.The court sentenced Bethune to two years in prison, with the sentence suspended for five years – meaning he will not be jailed.The assault conviction was for throwing bottles of rancid butter at the whalers aboard their ship, including one that broke and gave several Japanese crew members chemical burns.

Bethune, 45, climbed onto the Shonan Maru 2 in February from a Jet Ski to confront its captain over the sinking of a protest vessel the previous month. He slashed a protective net with a knife, which the court said he possessed illegally, to enter the ship.The former activist for Sea Shepherd, a U.S.-based conservation group, was held on board the ship and arrested when it returned to Japan in March.

The group has been protesting Japan’s whaling for years, often engaging in scuffles with Japanese whalers. Sea Shepherd claims the research whaling mission, an allowed exception to an international whaling ban, is a cover for commercial hunting.Judge Takashi Tawada said Sea Shepherd has been engaged in “acts of sabotage” against the whalers, and that the use of such violence should not be tolerated.

Bethune “assaulted the crew members and interfered with their mission and the impact was extremely serious,” Tawada said. “His actions are based on his selfish beliefs.”However, Tawada said there was room for leniency given that Bethune had acknowledged what had happened, indicated that he wouldn’t return to similar protest activities and had no criminal record in Japan.Bethune did not make a statement in court Wednesday, but flashed a message written on a notebook to his lawyers saying he wanted to go home as soon as possible, one of his attorneys said.The lawyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to fear of attacks by ultra-rightwing activists, said Bethune would not appeal the ruling. Bethune is expected to be deported within days.

In Wellington, New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully welcomed Bethune’s suspended sentence. Arrangements have been made through consular officials for his return home, McCully’s spokesman, James Funnell, told The Associated Press.”What a relief all right,” Bethune’s wife Sharon said of the ruling. She credited her husband with raising awareness of Japanese whaling, but added, “We don’t want him to be doing it again, though.”In his tearful closing statement June 10, Bethune apologized for the trouble and said he never intended to hurt anyone.During earlier trial sessions, Bethune said he just wanted to confront the ship’s captain and hand him a $3 million bill for the destruction of the Ady Gil, a Sea Shepherd vessel that sank during a collision in January.Outside the court Wednesday, about 30 right-wing protesters chanted and held up placards, including one that said, “Give Sea Shepherd terrorist capital punishment.”Shuhei Nishimura, one of the protesters, called the sentence “too lenient.”Sea Shepherd recently said it expelled Bethune because he violated its policy against carrying weapons. The group said he had a bow and arrows with him while he was aboard the Ady Gil, although he never used them.

Still, on Wednesday, the group called Bethune “a hero” and said his mission helped save hundreds of whales which were to be killed by Japan.Sea Shepherd also said it is free to return to the Antarctic, vowing to be “more effective next season.”Japan, Norway and Iceland hunt whales under exceptions to a 1986 moratorium by the International Whaling Commission. Japan’s whaling program involves large-scale expeditions to the Antarctic Ocean, while other whaling countries mostly stay along their own coasts.

Separately, Japan has said the leader of Sea Shepherd, Canadian citizen Paul Watson, 59, is now on an Interpol wanted list for allegedly ordering Bethune’s actions as part of the group’s disruption of Japanese whaling in the Antarctic. Watson was placed on the Interpol list in late June at the request of Japan, which accuses his group of risking whalers’ lives during their expedition.(AP)

17,000 flights were expected to be canceled on Friday due to the dangers posed for a second day by volcanic ash from Iceland

A huge ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano spread out across Europe on Friday causing air travel chaos on a scale not seen since the September 11 attacks.About 17,000 flights were expected to be canceled on Friday due to the dangers posed for a second day by volcanic ash from Iceland, aviation officials said. Airports in Britain, France, Germany, and across Europe were closed until at least Saturday.”I would think Europe was probably experiencing its greatest disruption to air travel since 9/11,” said a spokesman for the Civil Aviation Authority, Britain’s aviation regulator.”In terms of closure of airspace, this is worse than after 9/11. The disruption is probably larger than anything we’ve probably seen.”

Following the September 11, 2001 attacks on Washington and New York, U.S. airspace was closed for three days and European airlines were forced to halt all transatlantic services.

Vulcanologists say the ash could cause problems to air traffic for up to 6 months if the eruption continues, but even if it is short-lived the financial impact on airlines could be significant.The fallout hit airlines’ shares on Friday with Lufthansa, British Airways, Air Berlin, Air France-KLM, Iberia and Ryanair down between 0.8 and 2.2 percent.The International Air Transport Association said only days ago that airlines were just coming out of recession.

“LIMITED COMMERCIAL SIGNIFICANCE”

The flight cancellations would cost carriers such as British Airways and Lufthansa about 10 million pounds ($16.04 million) a day, transport analyst Douglas McNeill said.

“To lose that sum of money isn’t a very pleasant experience but it’s of limited commercial significance as well,” he told BBC TV. “A couple of days like this won’t matter too much. If it goes on for weeks, that’s a different story.”The volcano began erupting on Wednesday for the second time in a month from below the Eyjafjallajokull glacier, hurling a plume of ash 6 to 11 km (4 to 7 miles) into the atmosphere.Officials said it was still spewing magma and although the eruption could abate in the coming days, ash would continue drifting into the skies of Europe.

Volcanic ash contains tiny particles of glass and pulverized rock that can damage engines and airframes.

In 1982 a British Airways jumbo jet lost power in all its engines when it flew into an ash cloud over Indonesia, gliding toward the ground before it was able to restart its engines.The incident prompted the aviation industry to rethink the way it prepared for ash clouds.

Of the 28,000 flights that usually travel through European airspace on an average day, European aviation control agency Eurocontrol said it expected only 11,000 to operate on Friday while only about a third of transatlantic flights were arriving.The British Meteorological Office showed the cloud drifting south and west over Europe. Eurocontrol warned problems would continue for at least another 24 hours and an aviation expert at the World Meteorological Organization said it was impossible to say when flights would resume.”We can only predict the time that flights will resume after the eruption has stopped, but for as long as the eruption is still going on and still leading to a significant eruption, we cannot say,” said Scylla Sillayo, a senior official in the WMO’s aeronautical meteorology unit.

AIRSPACE CLOSED

Britain’s air traffic control body said all English airspace would be closed until 8 p.m. EDT on Friday although certain flights from Northern Ireland and Scottish airports were being allowed to take off until 1800 GMT.”When the experts give us the all-clear we’ll get the operation back up and running,” Paul Haskins, head of safety at National Air Traffic Service, told BBC radio.

There were no flights from London’s Heathrow, Europe’s busiest airport, which handles some 180,000 passengers a day, while officials at Germany’s Frankfurt airport, Europe’s second busiest, said flights would be suspended from 2 a.m. EDT.Around 2,000 people slept overnight at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, a spokeswoman said, adding they did not expect airspace in the Netherlands to reopen soon.

Eurocontrol said airspace was closed over Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Estonia, the north of the Czech Republic, northern France including all Paris airports, and at airports in northern Germany, Austria and parts of Poland.

Polish officials said if the disruption continued, it might force a delay in Sunday’s funeral for President Lech Kaczynski and his wife who were killed in a plane crash last Saturday.Airlines across Asia and the Middle East have also canceled or delayed flights to most European destinations.

However, as the ash plume drifted south over Europe, Irish officials said most of the airspace over Ireland had reopened.The air problems have proved a boon for rail companies. All 58 Eurostar trains between Britain and Europe were operating full, carrying some 46,500 passengers, and a spokeswoman said they would consider adding services if problems persisted.(Reuters)