White House eagerly highlights the departure of U.S. combat troops from Iraq

WASHINGTON As the White House eagerly highlights the departure of U.S. combat troops from Iraq, the small army of American diplomats left behind is embarking on a long and perilous path to keeping the volatile country from slipping back to the brink of civil war.Among the challenges are helping Iraq’s deeply divided politicians form a new government; refereeing long-simmering Arab-Kurd territorial disputes; advising on attracting foreign investment; pushing for improved government services; and fleshing out a blueprint for future U.S.-Iraqi relations.

President Barack Obama also is banking on the diplomats – about 300, protected by as many as 7,000 private security contractors – to assume the duties of the U.S. military. That includes protecting U.S. personnel from attack and managing the training of Iraqi police, starting in October 2011.The Iraq insurgency, which began shortly after U.S. troops toppled Baghdad in April 2003, is why the U.S. only now is entering the post-combat phase of stabilizing Iraq. Originally, the U.S. thought Iraq would be peaceful within months of the invasion, allowing for a short-lived occupation and the relatively quick emergence of a viable government.Although the insurgency has been reduced to what one analyst terms a “lethal nuisance,” it will complicate the State Department’s mission and test Iraq’s security forces.Much is at stake as the department negotiates with the Pentagon over acquiring enough Black Hawk helicopters, bomb-resistant vehicles and other heavy gear to outfit its own protection force in Iraq.

“Regardless of the reasons for going to war, everything now depends on a successful transition to an effective and unified Iraqi government and Iraqi security forces that can bring both security and stability to the average Iraqi,” says Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In his view that transition will take five years to 10 years.

The question is whether progress will be interrupted or reversed once American combat power is gone.The U.S. will have 50,000 troops in Iraq when the combat mission officially ends Aug. 31; they are scheduled to draw down to zero by Dec. 31, 2011. Until then, they will advise and train Iraqi security forces, and provide security and transport for the diplomats.

Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said in an interview to be broadcast Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that he believes Iraq’s security forces have matured to the point where they will be ready to shoulder enough of the burden to permit the remaining 50,000 U.S. soldiers to go home at the end of next year.”My assessment today is they – they will be,” Odierno said, according to an excerpt of the interview released Saturday by CNN.”We continue to see development in planning, in their ability to conduct operations,” he added. “We continue to see political development, economic development and all of these combined together will start to create an atmosphere that creates better security.”

Once the U.S. troops are gone, the State Department will be responsible for the security of its personnel.Obama administration officials say the diplomats are well prepared for what the State Department expects to be a three to five-year transition to a “normal” U.S.-Iraqi relationship.”We are fully prepared to assume our responsibilities as we move through this transition from a military-led effort to a civilian-led effort,” department spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

Iraq watchers have their doubts.Kenneth M. Pollack, a frequent visitor to Iraq as director of Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution, says the administration is in danger of underestimating the difficulty it faces.”One of the biggest mistakes that most Americans are making is assuming that Iraq can’t slide back into civil war. It can,” Pollack said. “This thing can go bad very easily.”Pollack, who does not consider himself a pessimist on Iraq, said the historical record on civil wars around the globe shows that about half repeat themselves.

“So it is a huge mistake to assume it can’t” happen in Iraq, whose civil strife in 2005-07 was so violent that many Americans assumed the war was lost and believed U.S. troops should give up and go home.Pollack considers the State Department ill-suited for its new tasks – starting with the police training mission and including the complex developmental problems such as improving Iraq’s water system.”What the State Department is being asked to do isn’t in their DNA,” Pollack said.The department has been strongly criticized for its past work in Iraqi police training. An October 2007 report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Stuart W. Bowen Jr., said the State Department had so badly managed a February 2004 contract for Iraqi police training that the department could not tell what it got for the $1.2 billion it spent.

In May 2004 President George W. Bush put the Pentagon in charge of all security force development.The newly departed U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, Christopher Hill, says he sees brighter days ahead for Iraq, but he also laments “woefully low” supplies of electricity and deeply ingrained tensions among the three main competitors for political power: Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.”There is a mountain of mistrust,” Hill said.The diplomats’ postwar task would have been much easier if, as the administration once hoped, Iraq had formed a new government by now, nearly six months after its March 7 national elections.Instead, the political stalemate   with no end in sight – has created another hurdle to the central U.S. goal in Iraq: translating hard-fought security gains into stability.Still, there is optimism in some quarters.

“While there are no guarantees, the prospects for Iraq’s security and stability beyond 2011 look as good or better than they have at any time in the recent past,” John Negroponte, who was U.S. ambassador to Iraq in 2004-05, wrote Thursday in a ForeignPolicy.com blog.Another complication is the shake up of key U.S. players in Baghdad.Odierno leaves Baghdad on Sept. 1 for a new assignment in the U.S., and Gen. David Petraeus, who was Odierno’s boss as head of Central Command, switched last month to take command in Afghanistan. Hill was replaced in Baghdad this past week by James Jeffrey, who was the U.S. ambassador to Turkey.(AP)

57 candidates and Iraqi soldiers were killed and 123 injured after a suicide bomber at army recruitment center in Baghdad

Baghdad At least 57 candidates and Iraqi soldiers were killed and 123 injured after a suicide bomber blew himself up at army recruitment center in Baghdad, Tuesday, two weeks before U.S. combat duty in Iraq ended.The blast, which ravage the ranks recruits, is the one that claimed the most victims of this year and it happens when the unexpected guerrillas also launched a murder of the judges in the Iraqi capital and the restive provinces in northern Iraq.Bloodshed adds to the tension that has got worse after the general elections which did not complete more than five months ago. General elections were not yet produced a new government.

Guerrillas have been targeting Iraqi army and police as they prepared to assume full security responsibilities on 1 September, when the United States end the combat mission 7.5 years.The number of U.S. troops will be reduced to be 50 000 personnel to the mission of training before a full withdrawal is planned for next year.

“We’re waiting in line. Also, there officers and soldiers. Suddenly there was an explosion. Thanksgiving is just my hand injury,” said Aziz Saleh, one of which will be recruited, told Reuters Television, while doctors at al-Karkh hospital care victim injury.As many as 57 people were killed and 123 injured in an attack on an Army base in the field Maidan, the central part of Baghdad, according to information from the media office of the Ministry of Health.

The White House said U.S. President Barack Obama condemned the attack, but U.S. withdrawal timetable has not changed.”Our combat mission ended at the end of the month, but we’re still going to put forces in there that will help support the (Iraqi forces) as needed,” said spokesman Bill Burton told reporters on Air Force One.(AFP)

Baghdad has declared a new military campaign against Iraqi political parties

An al Qaeda-linked militant group that claimed responsibility for recent bombings in Baghdad has declared a new military campaign against Iraqi political parties, according to a group that monitors insurgents’ communications.The threat from Islamic State of Iraq was contained in a speech from the group’s leader, Omar al-Baghdadi, on an audio tape posted on jihadist forums on Thursday, the U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group said.

ISI threatened voters before Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary election, warning that they risked death if they cast ballots and calling the election a farce aimed at cementing Shi’ite domination over Sunnis.It also claimed responsibility for bombings at three Baghdad hotels in January that killed at least 36 people, and attacks on government buildings in December that killed 112.

Sunni Islamist insurgents were blamed for rocket, mortar and other attacks that killed 39 people on election day, but 62 percent of Iraq’s registered voters turned out to cast ballots despite the violence and threats.A successful election is considered a major milestone for Iraq’s security forces and its fragile democracy as U.S. troops prepare to depart by the end of 2011. Washington launched its attack on Iraq on March 19, 2003.

“With grace and success from Allah, a coordinated military campaign was started in Baghdad and throughout Iraq, to break the idol of democracy and its resulting polytheist elections,” the ISI message said, according to a translation from SITE.

It said it had been able to “strike the security plan in the heart of Baghdad” and other cities on election day despite increased security efforts to protect voters.

The group cited as part of its campaign a series of pre-election attacks on the headquarters of political parties including the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the National Dialogue Front, the Iraqi Communist Party and others, SITE said.ISI is believed by intelligence analysts to have been created by al Qaeda in Iraq as a local umbrella group for insurgent organizations.

Iraq says 20,000 Saddam Hussein-era army officers will rejoin the military after being dismissed from their posts after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion for serving under the former dictator

BAGHDAD Iraq says 20,000 Saddam Hussein-era army officers will rejoin the military after being dismissed from their posts after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion for serving under the former dictator.Defense Ministry spokesman Mohammed al-Askari said Friday the reinstatement will begin immediately.The move comes just over a week before national elections the U.S. hopes will help bring together Iraq’s rival religious factions.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other Shiite politicians have been criticized for unfairly targeting former members of Saddam’s ruling Baath Party.Rival Sunni lawmaker Maysoun Damlouji says the reinstatement is a blatant ploy by al-Maliki to win more votes on March 7. (AP)